Red shirts 'largest popular political movement' to date in Thailand: seminar

Insisting that red-shirt protesters abide by the principles of non-violence may not be enough to prevent them from "being crushed by the Army", Thammasat University historian Thanet Aphornsuvan warned yesterday.

Thanet, who was speaking at a panel discussion at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand (FCCT) on Thursday night on the topic of "Thailand's Current Political Crisis", said this was because the same method - an appeal for non-violence - had never worked in the past in Thailand.

The Civil Court on Thursday evening issued a temporary injunction against the government from using lethal force outright against protesters after the government earlier threatened to use live rounds. But Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said the court's decision was being appealed yesterday.

Thanet, who said the red-shirt movement was a by-product of the September 19, 2006 coup that ousted then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, acknowledged the red shirts were the largest popular political movement Thailand had ever witnessed.

"It's the biggest in Thailand ... What is happening in Thailand is closer to the major revolutions in the world, such as the French Revolution. This is what is going to happen in Thailand," he said.

Thanet said if the red shirts' bid to change Thailand failed, it would be a long time before another such attempt could be mounted again.

Gothom Arya, former 2006 junta-appointed member of the National Legislative Assembly and director of Mahidol University's Research Centre on Peace Building, said the possibility of peace was now in the hands of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

"Peace is in his hands. It's up to him to make it, alive or dead," he said, adding half-jokingly that since Abhisit's command of English was virtually perfect, foreign correspondents might be able to prevent further bloodshed by tweeting to the premier in "perfectly good English".

"And maybe he will listen to you."

Gothom, who met with leaders of the red-shirt Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship on Thursday afternoon to promote a compromise five-month House dissolution proposal, said red-shirt leaders were now "more open to negotiations, because they're in a weaker position".

He said each side was keen to win over the other but that emotions were "so high" on both sides that it was hard for them to meet and talk again even in secret.

"They think this war of attrition will provide victory," he said, adding that there was also no "synchronisation of wills" to break the current impasse.

"The conflict has its own dynamic - like opening Pandora's box," he said.

With a perfectly neutral public person not really available in Thailand at the moment, Gothom urged all sides not to think "whoever is not with you is against you", but rather to set up a peace room instead of a war room.

Asked whether he thought the declaration of the state of emergency well ahead of the clashes on April 10 was justified, Gothom said Abhisit had prematurely declared the state of emergency.

"I really don't know what kind of emergency that was. So why the emergency decree?" he said.

Another panellist, Swedish Ambassador Lenmart Linner, said the present crisis was like having three trains rushing at one another, all on the same track at full speed.

"I do still believe there remains room for negotiation, but [the options] are narrowing quickly now," he said, adding that the conflict was complex, with grievances on all sides.

Comments

"Peace is in his hands. It's

"Peace is in his hands. It's up to him to make it, alive or dead," he said, adding half-jokingly that since Abhisit's command of English was virtually perfect, foreign correspondents might be able to prevent further bloodshed by tweeting to the premier in "perfectly good English".

"And maybe he will listen to you."

PPT had a link to the Timesonline who give the obvious solution to Thailand's problems :

Speedy democratic elections could rescue Thailand from mob politics and civil war

The present Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has qualities of a promising leader — charm, education and cosmopolitanism (he was born and educated in Britain). But from the beginning he has been undermined by a simple and devastating fact — that his party has lost every election under his leadership and achieved power only as a consequence of military force.

This is the genuine grievance driving the Red Shirt protesters who have shown remarkable forbearance despite Mr Abhisit’s flouting of democratic norms. A growing number are urban, middle-class Thais motivated not by love of Thaksin, but deep disquiet about the manner in which he was ousted. This anxiety was kindled into rage when, a fortnight ago, 25 people were killed in a clumsy attempt by soldiers to disperse protesters.

More, and probably worse, bloodshed is a certainty if the Government clears the Red Shirt stronghold by force. A political settlement is the only acceptable solution, and it will require compromise by both sides. Mr Abhisit must accept the Red Shirts’ proposal of new elections in three months, a wholly reasonable proposal that he rejected out of hand in a nationwide broadcast yesterday. He must acknowledge that he has become part of the problem, and step down immediately — not for exile, as the Red Shirts demand, but for an honest fight at the ballot box.

More importantly, all sides must resolve that this will mark the end of Thailand’s era of mob politics. Reds and Yellows must make a covenant to respect the outcome of the election and never again to resort to illegal means of protest. Above all, the army must stay in its barracks, and reflect on the way that, in attempting to heal Thailand four years ago, it succeeded only in opening deeper, and now festering, wounds.

On the M79 grenades that

On the M79 grenades that killed and wounded at Silom... from the BPundit:

Then a Bangkok AP journalist tweeted:

Seasoned colleagues (war zones in Afghanistan, Iraq, Gaza) concluded that M79 couldn't be launched from Lumpini as Suthep claimed on air.

@Kewrious @james_clark If it's indeed launched from behind Rama 6 statue, grenade'd have to pass over bridges and overpass.

Red shirt core leader Jatuporn Prompan said this morning that he had evidence to suggest that the bombs had been fired from some high-rise buildings in Silom area and that the government was behind the plot.

Of course, as noted early on Friday morning, the anti-Thaskin ASTV Mangaer quotes a witness as stating that the M79 was fired from the fifth floor of Chulalongkorn Hospital which is not where the red shirts are located - the red shirts are on the other side of the road.

and from PPt :

Eye witnesses pointed to Chulalongkorn University Hospital.

Could the M79 attacks at Silom be the work of one of the "group of about 100 people led by Dr Tul Sitthisomwong, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Medicine"? Or by the Thai Lysenko, the racist Dr Tul Sitthisomwong himself?

The Bangkok Post is today

The Bangkok Post is today entitled : 'Plot targets monarchy'.

The Centre for the Resolution to Emergency Situations claims to have uncovered a plot to overthrow the monarchy.

The CRES said the network behind the plot included key leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, members of the Puea Thai Party and former banned politicians, academics and hosts of community radio programmes.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday the CRES had put together the pieces of the “political jigsaw”. He said people involving in the network could face legal action.

The prime minister and the armed forces have long suspected the UDD rally had a higher purpose than just forcing a dissolution of the House of Representatives.

Has the Bangkok Post dusted off its "documentary evidence" from 1976... the fraudulent picture of the Thammasat students "hanging the Crown Prince in effigy" for reuse in 2010?

They can substitute the faces of Weng and Veera for those of Thammasat students just as they then substituted the face of the Crown Prince for the student portraying the union leader hung by the goons the Post works for... and have another happy Bangkok Post human barbecue.

The Bangkok Post is truly despicable, the utter dregs of military propagandists posing as "journalists".

Further on in their screed they write :

The capital was rocked by grenade attacks in front of the house of Chart Thai Pattana Party chief adviser Banharn Silpa-archa on Sunday night and a bomb threats in front of Chulalongkorn Hospital and a car showroom.

Grenades from the "group of about 100 people led by Dr Tul Sitthisomwong, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Medicine"? They merely reported "threats" in front of their own digs. The Bangkok Post publishes the one as the other to nearly the same effect.

The BPundit reproduces and annotates the SLORC's... I mean CRES'... diagram of conspiracy, drawn on whole cloth.

Sansern also made allusions to HM the Queen's lady-in-waiting while delivering his wild allegations. Does anyone know what he was talking about?